Yes, you can win at Rice. It has been done before.
Because of the small enrollment and the tough academic restrictions, Rice might be seen as an impossible rebuilding project on the scale of what Turner Gill has to do at Buffalo and Al Golden has in front of him at Temple, but new head man Todd Graham at least has a little bit of history on his side with an 8-4 record as recently as 2001. However, for Rice to win, it needs to do something a bit quirky since it doesn't get the top players that other schools can get.
Navy has proved that you can win with an option offense, and under former head coach Ken Hatfield, this was the type of quirky team that always caught averaged defenses off guard. Now, Graham will try to win with the spread offense, and it's going to take time.
To give Owl fans hope that the program can potentially be a player, look to Northwestern, a great academic institution that has the same issues as Rice. The Wildcats have not only thrived with a version of the spread, they've been successful in the Big Ten. However, they need everything to break the right way to come up with winning seasons, and Rice will eventually need the same sort of luck.
For this year, it's all about just getting from phase one to phase two and get the team in line with what the coaching staff wants to do. The previous regime made a passing nod to throwing it more when it tried to implement a bit of a spread offense in an effort to save a sinking ship, but Rice still finished dead last in the nation in passing. Graham has to make the square pegs fit into the round holes and hope for quarterback Chase Clement to use the next three years to grow into the type of all-around playmaker needed to run the spread. Running backs and former quarterbacks have been turned into receivers to fill the positions, but the spread is about running the ball, as well. Fortunately, Quinton Smith is one of the league's most explosive backs.
The defense has experience, but not a whole bunch of talent. Getting into the backfield will be job one after struggling to generate sacks and tackles for loss despite having the talents of all-star John Syptak up front. He's gone, and now the defense has to use its speed and quickness to be more disruptive.
No, Rice isn't going to win the Conference USA title this season, and it's probably not even going to crack the three win mark. It'll be about improving from wee to week and getting everything in place for the future.
The Schedule: It's not like Rice needs more problems, but it has three, three game road stretches that would test any team. The UCF, UTEP and Tulsa tilt should especially try the team's toughness, but on the plus side, the season ends with home games against East Carolina and SMU. The non-conference schedule has a painful three game stretch of at UCLA, Texas and at Florida State before going to Army for what has to be a must-win. Even the home opener isn't really a true home game playing in-town Houston.
What you need to know on offense ... Rice intended to mess with a version of the spread offense last year, but it never really happened as the offense finished dead last in the country in passing and 115th in pass efficiency. New head coach Todd Berry and offensive coordinator Major Applewhite have their work cut out for them as they try to make all the pieces fit. Fortunately, they're coaching players smart enough to figure out what they're supposed to be doing and should still be able to use the running abilities of the old days. The big key will be efficient play from QB Chase Clement right away, but he only completed 43% of his throws last season. RB Quinton Smith will be the featured player early on working behind a decent line.
Best Offensive Player: Senior RB Quinton Smith. The team's best running back last season is a big play threat and will be the main man in the offense until the passing game starts to click. He's deadly when he gets a little room to run, so the idea will be to get the ball to him on the move as much as possible.
What you need to know on defense ... New defensive coordinator Paul Randolph has plenty of experience to work with, but he has to get far more production out of a D that finished near the bottom in just about every major category and was steamrolled over by any running game with a pulse. On the plus side, things got better as the year went on after allowing 45.7 points per game over the first seven. The hope is for quickness to overcome the lack of size in the back eight of the 3-3-5 alignment with the strength likely to be in the secondary led by safeties Andray Downs and Chad Price. Up front, a replacement is needed for all-star John Syptak and some semblance of a pass rush needs to emerge.
Best Defensive Player: Senior S Chad Price. Part safety and part linebacker, Price joins Andray Downs to give Rice one of Conference USA's most experienced safety pairs. Price is great at getting into the backfield and is a sure tackler, but he has to starting picking off passes.
Key player to a successful season: Sophomore QB Chase Clement. The new spread offense won't work unless Clement is a steady decision maker and improves his passing. He struggled as a freshman finishing with a passer rating of 85.8 and only completed 43% of his throws. With the running skills and the smarts to run the attack, he should turn out to be a great fit ... eventually.
The season will be a success if ... Rice wins three games. It came close to beating UCF and UTEP over the second half of last season and if beat Tulane, but it's going to take big upsets to come close to winning more than a few games. It'll be a shock if the Owls are favored in any game this year.
Key game: Nov. 25 vs. SMU. The new coaching staff is going to need at least a year to get everything in place and for the team to figure out what it's doing. No one will say it's all about playing for the future, but the season finale against SMU will be important to see where the team is at and what needs working on for 2007.
2005 Fun Stats:
- Fumbles: Rice 34, lost 16 - Opponents 11, lost 5
- Penalties: Opponents 91 for 860 yards - Rice 54 for 486 yards
- Third down conversions: Opponents 65 of 138 (47%) - Rice 63 of 169 (34%)
