Last year
15-15 overall, 6-10 in conference. Lost in first round of NIT to Rutgers, 76-71.

Back
Geary Claxton (15.2 PPG, 1.00 PPWS , 13.1 reb. pct. , 2.7 assists per 100 possessions , 3.8 TOs per 100 possessions )
Jamelle Cornley (11.4 PPG, 1.08 PPWS, 11.2 reb. pct., 2.3 a/100 poss., 3.3 TO/100 poss.)
Ben Luber (7.5 PPG, 1.10 PPWS, 3.2 reb. pct., 8.9 a/100 poss., 4.1 TO/100 poss.)
Mike Walker (6.7 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 4.7 reb. pct., 8.6 a/100 poss., 3.1 TO/100 poss.)
David "Mooch" Jackson (6.7 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 6.6 reb pct., 6.1 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Milos Bogetic (3.7 PPG)
Brandon Hassell (1.7 PPG)

New
Danny Morrissey (6-3 G, sat out 2006 with knee injury, 7.7 PPG in 2005)
Maxwell DuBois (6-3 G, redshirt freshman)
Andrew Jones (6-8 F, Philadelphia)
David "D.J." Jackson (6-6 F, Farrell, PA)

Gone
Travis Parker (12.2 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 11.4 reb. pct., 3.7 a/100 poss., 4.3 TO/100 poss.)

Official motto for 2006-07
"No longer risible! Really!"

What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Regular readers of this blog know I dig old movies and that from time to time I'll drag the oldies into discussions on, of all things, Big Ten basketball. And so it was that my thoughts turned cinematic when I read this write-up of the chatter offered up for consumption at Penn State's media day.

Here's junior guard Mike Walker:

"I believe it's realistic [winning the Big Ten]," said Walker. "I think the Big Ten's gonna be down a little bit this year, I think we're gonna be up a little bit. We kind of got fortunate in that aspect. If we just go out and take care of business, I think we can do it."

And sophomore guard Danny Morrissey says he and his teammates "really think" they can win the Big Ten.

Maybe the Nittany Lions have tempered their expectations slightly in the wake of Geary Claxton's injury--a broken bone in his hand that's expected to keep him out of action for the next few weeks. Still, this kind of media-day talk reminded me of weepies from the 30s and 40s where the main character has a fatal disease but the doctor, to give the patient "peace of mind," has lied and told them all is well.

I know Ed DeChellis knows the truth. I only wonder if he's told his players.

For the truth is harsh:

1. Penn State had one of the worst defenses of any major-conference team in the country last year.

2. The Nittany Lions' problem is fundamental in nature (they're short), extreme in severity (see below), and has been on uninterrupted and debilitating display for 60-plus games.

3. Coming into this season, there appear to have been no dispositive infusions of new (preferably large) personnel.

Things can change, sure. But knowing what we know today, it takes severe DAD to talk about Big Ten titles in Happy Valley just yet.

The problem is simple. Penn State is short and opponents just shoot over these guys....

Worst major-conference interior defenses--opponent 2FG pct. (2006, conference games only )
1. Penn State (57.6)
2. Tennessee (55.1)
3. Missouri (54.3)
4. Georgia (54.1)
5. Iowa State (53.8)

DeChellis does everything he can to stop this bleeding by playing zone and practically begging opponents to shoot threes instead:

Percentage of major-conference opponent FGAs devoted to 3FGAs (2006, conference games only )
1. Penn State (50.2)
2. Marquette (40.1)
3. Northwestern (40.0)
4. Miami (37.2)
5. South Carolina (37.1)

For the record, DeChellis says his team played zone last year because his players " were not really containing the ball . We were giving up drives to the basket." (More: "We must become a much better defensive team, and it all starts with [the] perimeter . If we can't contain the ball on the perimeter, that puts a lot of pressure on our front-line guys.") I think his team played zone last year because his players were so dang short. But whatever the motivation of a given defensive set may be, Penn State must improve its FG defense this year.

OK, now let's see the glass as half-full, shall we?
That being said, Penn State made tremendous progress on offense last year. The strength of that offense is PSU's offensive rebounding . Not unlike Bo Ryan's swing offense, Penn State can at times be seen running sets designed to pull opposing bigs away from the hoop. Unlike the Badgers, however, the Nittany Lions choose to pursue the resulting opportunities on the offensive glass. This will henceforth be known 'round here as the Penn State Schwing Offense.

Even more important, if less readily apparent, Penn State was able to hold on to the ball last year, something they were utterly unable to do in 2005.

BONUS salute to boring necessities mastered by Penn State! Limiting turnovers is both invisible to and mandatory for good offense. No one ever points and says, "Wow! Great non-turnover!" But (insert Levon Helm voice here) there would appear to be a demon in the sky out there at about 23 percent of possessions--turn the ball over that many times or more and the consequences are not pretty. (That being said, limiting turnovers shouldn't be confused with fretting about eliminating them entirely. The national champion each of the past two years has coughed the ball up more frequently than your garden-variety conference leader in this category.)

Funny, that's exactly what the AP movie critic said about Gigli
From an AP story on Penn State, regarding last year's defense: "It worked at times."

Yes, I suppose it worked before each opening tip, during halftimes, and in the intervals between each final buzzer and the next opening tip. Oh, and since March.

Exquisitely tactful anonymous phraseologist of the Associated Press, Wonk salutes you!

First-team all-Big Ten....
Geary Claxton was named to the preseason All-Big Ten first team by the media--then promptly went out and broke a bone in his hand in Penn State's first exhibition game. The 6-5 junior takes more shots by far than any other Nittany Lion--and it doesn't take a good deal of imagination to see DeChellis's stated wish that Claxton learn " to make other guys around him better " as coach-speak for: stop shooting so damn much.

Nevertheless, Claxton is indisputably a beast on the offensive boards (and that's highly unusual for a player who channels so much of his team's offense). Indefatigable monster of the offensive glass Geary Claxton, Wonk salutes you!

BONUS Claxton clarification! This wire story says Claxton is "the leading returning rebounder in the conference." Not even close to correct, of course. Here's the truth as far as rebounding and returning players are concerned:

Rebound pct ., 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game)
1. Shaun Pruitt, IL (16.0)
2. Courtney Sims, MI (15.9)
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, WI (14.7)
4. Brian Butch, WI (14.1)
5. Geary Claxton, PSU (13.1)

Rebound pct. represents the percentage of available boards hauled in by a given player while he's in the game. In this case, Claxton rebounded about 13 percent of all missed shots--by opponents and by his own team--during his time on the floor last year. His number for rebounds per game is higher than any of the players named above simply because he was on the floor for 85 percent of the possible minutes. By contrast, his nearest competitor in minutes from the above list, Brian Butch, played just 60 percent of his team's minutes. For two years now this blog has been adding its small mite to the efforts of other civic-minded hoops types to once and for all put this utterly worthless "rebounds per game" stat beyond the pale of respectability--it would be logically equivalent to a patently useless "hits per game" stat in baseball. One of these days, by Godfrey, we shall succeed.

Is there a Sophomore of the Year award? ("SOY"?)
Like Claxton, Jamelle Cornley is an undersized hard worker in the paint. He doesn't rebound as well as Claxton but last year's Big Ten Freshman of the Year scores more efficiently . (Although this characterization of Cornley's rebounding is going to need serious revision if the young man maintains anything close to the 23.4 rebound percentage he's posted in the first two games this year.)

Fewer TOs and more points
Ben Luber represented, all by himself, much of the progress made by Penn State on offense last year versus 2005. Most notably Luber's turnovers declined significantly while his scoring efficiency improved dramatically . The skeptic in me says a 65.5 percent free throw shooter (2006) can't hit 44.8 percent of his threes two years in a row. Then again Luber was an 89.6 percent FT shooter (!) in 2005. Which means an impostor shot the free throws one of those years--jinkies! Is there a Velma in State College? Walk up to "Luber" and yank off his rubber mask!

Still another prolific assist-maker
Mike Walker turns the ball over even less than Luber and his (tempo-free) assist numbers are almost as good. However, Walker struggled with his perimeter shot last year.

No, it's a greater honor for me
David "Mooch" Jackson used to be known simply as David Jackson--until the Nittany Lions brought in a freshman this year named David Jackson. (As we speak, PSU assistants are out on the recruiting trail and going hard after '08 prospects Geary Claxton, Jamelle Cornley, and (this was the tough one) Joonas Suotamo.) For the record: the senior is Mooch and the freshman is D.J. Got it? As for Mooch, he started all 30 games for Penn State last year. DeChellis has praised Jackson's defense (that's rare) and voiced a desire for more offense.

Trudging slowly over wet sand....
Sophomore guard Danny Morrissey, newly returned from a year lost to a knee injury, shot 35.8 percent on his threes in the notably challenging 2005 season.

Etc .
With the departure of Travis Parker, there are minutes available down low alongside Claxton and Cornley and the contenders for the PT are Brandon Hassell, Milos Bogetic, Joonas Suotamo, and Andrew Jones. For more on all of the above, read the briskly efficient candidates guide authored by indefatigable Nittany Lion savant Jeff Rice.

--John Gasaway, better known as the BigTen Wonk, is the author of a blog on BigTen basketball.  For more on John's website, click here: http://bigtenwonk.blogspot.com/ --ed.