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Sweet defense, sour offense. Meet Minnesota.
By JOHN GASAWAY, BigTenWonk
Nov 9, 2005 - 11:50:00 AM

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Last year
21-11 overall, 10-6 in conference. Lost in NCAA first round to Iowa State, 64-53.

Back
Vincent Grier (17.9 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 9.5 reb. pct., 3.9 assists per 100 possessions)
Dan Coleman (8.3 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 10.1 reb. pct., 2.3 a/100 poss.)
Rico Tucker (5.8 PPG, 0.96 PPWS, 5.3 reb. pct., 6.3 a/100 poss.)
J'son Stamper (4.9 PPG, 1.01 PPWS, 16.9 reb. pct., 2.3 a/100 poss.)
Spencer Tollackson (3.2 PPG, 0.89 PPWS, 10.1 reb. pct., 3.2 a/100 poss.)

New
Maurice Hargrow (6-5 G, returning after abortive transfer to Arkansas--11.4 PPG in 2003-04)
Adam Boone (6-3 G, medical redshirt--8.4 PPG in 2003-04)
Jonathan Williams (6-9 F, medical redshirt)
Brandon Smith (6-6 G/F, Minneapolis)
Damian Johnson (6-7 F, Thibodaux, LA)
Kevin Payton (6-6 G, Camden, NJ)
Jamal Abu-Shamala (6-5 G, Shakopee, MN)

Gone
Jeff Hagen (11.2 PPG, 1.17 PPWS, 13.7 reb. pct., 4.7 a/100 poss.)
Aaron Robinson (8.4 PPG, 1.19 PPWS, 4.8 reb. pct. 5.2 a/100 poss.)
Brent Lawson (7.3 PPG, 1.23 PPWS, 7.8 reb. pct., 4.1 a/100 poss.)

Official motto for 2005-06
"Our coach looks more like Jeff Bezos than your coach."

What we know in November
Minnesota games last year followed a certain pattern. So long as the Gophers were participating it didn't really matter which team had the ball: the offense was going to look bad and the defense was going to look good.

That's because last season Minnesota had both the best defense in the Big Ten and the conference's worst non-Penn-State offense. Which means there are essentially three questions facing Gopher coach Dan Monson this season.

1. Can the defense be that sweet again?
It won't be easy. Minnesota was better than good on D last year--they were outstanding.

Here are the best defenses from last year in the so-called "power" conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, C-USA, Pac-10, SEC):

Defensive efficiency: opponent points per possession
(2005, conference games only)
1. Louisville (0.89)
2. North Carolina (0.90)
3. Washington State (0.91)
4. Iowa State (0.92)
5. Minnesota (0.92)
6. Connecticut (0.93)
7. St. Louis (0.93)
8. Illinois (0.94)
9. Alabama (0.94)
10. Cincinnati (0.94)
11. Kentucky (0.94)
12. Memphis (0.94)

(Granted, the numbers aren't directly comparable across conferences. Rather, Iowa State was as good defensively in Big 12 games as Minnesota was in Big Ten games.)

The Gophers achieved this lofty defensive status by doing two things better than any other team in the Big Ten: getting turnovers and guarding shooters.

Can they get as many turnovers from their opponents again this year? Here's how last year's leaders in steals look in tempo-free terms:

Minnesota: steals per 100 individual possessions
(2005, all games)
1. Rico Tucker (4.9)
2. Brent Lawson (3.6)
3. Vincent Grier (3.2)
4. Aaron Robinson (3.1)

While Grier's back this year, Tucker's status is in doubt
(he's been placed on "academic lockdown" by Monson), and Lawson and Robinson are gone. Tucker is a TO-creating monster and, other things being equal, it'd certainly be handy to have him around. The larger issue, though, is that Tucker and his mates on the perimeter were freed up to overplay out top last year because a certain big guy was guarding the post--a certain big guy who's no longer around....

Jeff Hagen was the only seven-footer in the Big Ten last year that Wonk couldn't beat up, the only seven-footer with some heft. By his very presence he contributed mightily to the Gophers having a very good defense. He will be missed: his teammates could take some chances on D knowing Hagen, literally, had their back.

As proof of Hagen's worth Wonk refers you to a surprising piece of evidence: the Gophers' unexpectedly
bad defensive 2FG pct. This blogger wonders if perhaps opponents shot so well inside the arc because the Minnesota interior defense was so outstanding. (Wha?....)

Repeat of outlandish hunch: the Gophers had an atrocious defensive 2FG pct. last year because their interior defense was so outstanding....

Opponents tried to avoid the strong Minnesota interior D by shooting before the Gophers--and most especially the not particularly Dee Brown-fast Hagen--got set in their half-court D. (And, indeed, the Gophers on occasion tried to counter their own offensive woes by shooting before the opponent got set in their half-court D.)

Result: Minnesota played the fastest games in the Big Ten last year. And they were able to offset the number of two-point baskets they gave up because they played outstanding perimeter D (holding opponents to just .274 shooting on their threes) and, as seen above, because they forced so many turnovers.

Only problem: that was then. And Hagen's gone. So Wonk is skeptical of the Gophers' chances of achieving 2005-level defense again in 2006.

But if by some chance they do repeat this level of performance, then assistant coach Jim Molinari, the man widely credited for last year's defensive turnaround, will deserve a lot of attention and praise.

2. Will the offense be that sour again?
After the Gophers' first exhibition game this season, Vincent Grier was quoted as follows: "Offense is not the problem for us. We just have to keep playing and step up our defensive intensity."

Let's see, here, how can Wonk put this politely....Grier couldn't have been more diametrically incorrect if he'd said, "Jim Carrey's subtle nuances are what keep me coming back for more," or, "I want to hear more about the Valerie Plame case--it affects my daily life so directly!" or, "With those 40-minute halftimes and clock-stoppages for each and every first down, college football games just go by too darn fast!"

Indeed, offense is the problem. The Gophers were bounced out of the tournament in the first round by Iowa State precisely because they played miserably on offense (though, granted, the Cyclones--in key respects the Minnesota of the Big 12--helped that outcome along with tremendous D). In that 64-53 loss, Minnesota scored an anemic 0.78 points per possession. (For comparison's sake, note that Penn State had the Big Ten's least efficient offense and averaged 0.90 points per possession in conference play.)

The crux of the problem is simple: Minnesota can't shoot very well. Only Penn State shot with less accuracy last year. Is the shooting going to improve for Dan Monson's team this year? Probably (simply because there's so much room for improvement)--but it's still not likely to be the Gophers' strong suit. This blogger searches the Minnesota roster in vain for a sure-thing interior scorer or lethal outside threat. Maybe one will emerge but until that happens the Gophers would do well to focus on hitting the offensive glass.

They'll likely need to.

3. Can the Gophers be as lucky as they were last year?
Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska puts it most diplomatically: "A team that scores only five more points than its opponents will generally not go 10-6." Which is to say Minnesota caught its share of breaks last year, most memorably when they went to West Lafayette on February 26 desperate for a road win to get into the NCAA Tournament. Fortune smiled on the Gophers that day: Carl Landry went down with his season-ending knee injury midway through the first half and Minnesota eked out a 59-57 victory over the depleted Boilermakers.

BONUS note of irony! That being said, Minnesota also suffered what was probably the year's most improbable loss: their total collapse at home against Northwestern. The Gophers led that game by 10 with four minutes left and yet somehow lost to a team that did not win another game all year on an opponent's home floor. (Yes, Wonk knows: Iowa collapsed against NU too. At least that was in Evanston.)

MVP Grier?
Wonk is hard pressed to find another player in the Big Ten more vital to his team than Vincent Grier is to Minnesota. Carl Landry, Dee Brown and Alando Tucker might come close--but subtract Grier from the Gophers and this team suddenly looks much more helpless.

Grier reminds this blogger of what Pierre Pierce could have been like if a mad scientist had given him a hoops personality transplant. The athleticism, hounding perimeter D, and drive-to-the-basket/draw-fouls aggressiveness of Pierce--but minus the turnovers and poor shot selection. What a concept!
This summer, Grier drew raves while playing alongside Shelden Williams, Gerry McNamara, and Craig Smith in the World University Games (a team that was coached by Villanova head man Jay Wright).

No, Grier has not as yet demonstrated an ability to hit the outside shot. But he adjusts accordingly, which is more than Wonk can say for many players facing this same situation.

From the Wonk archives: ladies and gentlemen, Maurice Hargrow and Adam Boone!
Maurice Hargrow is back (someone tell espn.com to reflect that here, please) after a short-lived transfer to Arkansas. In 2004 the 6-5 guard averaged 11 points a game and shot .367 on his threes, which may make Hargrow the best bet Monson has this year for an outside threat.

Wonk says Hargrow may be the best bet because Adam Boone frankly terrifies this blogger with his now-you-see-it-now-you-don't outside shot. In 2002 at North Carolina, Boone saw very limited action, granted, but still shot .430 on his threes. In 2004 at Minnesota, conversely, Boone saw extended minutes and shot just .289 from beyond the arc. Volatility thy name is Boone!

Quick! The Coleman that plays for Minnesota--Ron or Dan?
(Dan) Coleman's a bit of an oddity: a finesse power forward, if there is such a thing. He hit .347 on his threes last year and that's a needed skill for the Gophers. At the same time he brings little to the table as far as boards, particularly for a guy listed at 6-9.


Tasmanian Devil J'son Stamper, Wonk salutes you!
For fans who like players that make things happen, Wonk has the guy for you. Watch J'son Stamper and you will see a stat recorded. Probably not points, but a rebound, a turnover (his own), or a foul (that he commits)--Stamper makes all of the above happen in abundance. On the plus side he's one of the best rebounders in the Big Ten and, being only 6-6, that's saying something. (And if there's such a thing as a "clutch rebounder," it's Stamper, seemingly always the guy with the key board at the end of tight games.) On the other hand, for a player who was literally his team's seventh option on offense last year, the frequency with which he commits turnovers is little short of astonishing.

From Wonk's faint praise department
Spencer Tollackson played on the Big Ten team that toured Spain in the offseason and Bruce Weber, who coached the touring squad, has high praise for Tollackson's "energy." EXCLUSIVE Wonk translation: "energy" is a hoops euphemism for "unskilled" in about the same way that "possession receiver" is a football euphemism for "slow."

Health watch--oops, UPDATE: classroom watch....
Rico Tucker was ill last year and we didn't know it. He suffered during the later stages of the season from an immune deficiency known as Graves' disease. He had his thyroid removed in the offseason and is reported to be back to 100 percent. Now this fall Monson has, as noted above, placed Tucker on "academic lockdown," meaning, in effect, he doesn't practice with the team during the week.

Etc.
Monson says he's going to play freshman Brandon Smith. As to the other freshmen--Damian Johnson, Kevin Payton (currently injured), and walk-on Jamal Abu-Shamala--it
sounds like Monson is thinking in terms of redshirts. Plural.

--article reprinted with permission of the author

--for more Big Ten Basketball information from John Gasaway, go to bigtenwonk.blogspot.com


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