The Goods: After defeating the Islanders in five games in the first round, the Sabres did little to discourage their standing as the popular choice to come out of the East. True, the Sabres did look a bit flat-footed in game two, when the Islanders got a boost from the return of goaltender Rick DiPietro, and they barely survived a late-game surge by the Isles in game five, where their 4-3 win was preserved by a brilliant sprawling save by goaltender Ryan Miller. Some were disappointed that the Sabres didn’t dominate more thoroughly, but winning two games by one goal and getting contributions from up and down the lineup is what playoff hockey is all about; no one should’ve expected them to sweep the Isles in four and win every game 7-1. Oddly enough, the most dominant team performance of the first round came from the Rangers, who coincidentally pulled off the biggest upset of the first round as they defeated the third-seeded Thrashers in four straight. Of course, the Thrashers only finished three points ahead of New York in the standings, so the magnitude of the upset was not extreme, but the only other squad to defeat a higher seed in the first round was fifth-seeded San Jose beating fourth-seeded Nashville, and no one’s calling that an upset. New York’s big guns all contributed, with Michael Nylander totalling eight points in their four first round games, Jaromir Jagr getting seven, Brendan Shanahan scoring three goals, and Henrik Lundqvist playing great in goal. Perhaps most impressive was centre Sean Avery, who not only have five points centring the second line, but also drove many Thrashers to distraction, especially star winger Ilya Kovalchuk, and what’s more he did so without taking bad penalties himself. Buffalo’s scoring was much more spread out; Chris Drury was the biggest hero of the opening round, scoring four goals and five points; no other Sabre had more than two goals, and two guys (Daniel Briere and Dainius Zubrus) tied Drury for the team points lead at five. Miller played well enough to win, but wasn’t exactly spectacular, and considering how well he played in last year’s playoffs he can be better. New York’s special teams were very good against Atlanta; their penalty killing operated at 94% for the best rate of the first round, while their power play was fourth at 20.8%. Buffalo, whose special teams were a concern during the regular season, was also very good, with a 89.5% mark against the Isles, good for sixth, and a 16.7% power play, also sixth.

The Key: Depth. The safest bet in this series is that each team’s goaltender will win a game for them on their own. Both Miller and Lundqvist are that good. A fairly safe bet would be that Jagr will win one for New York, and Drury or Briere will win one for Buffalo. So whoever can get the next two wins through some other means will obviously come out on top. As far as depth goes, on paper no team in the playoffs compares to Buffalo. Their fourth line of Adam Mair, Tim Connolly and Drew Stafford is good enough to be the second line on a lot of teams, and their defense, while lacking a star blueliner, is very solid. But no team wins games on paper. New York also has enviable depth, with Shanahan anchoring a very good second line and Matt Cullen, a Cup winner with Carolina last season, centring a very dependable third line with rookie Ryan Callahan and sophomore Petr Prucha. New York also got great contributions in the first round from young defensemen Thomas Pock, who had three assists, and rookie Daniel Girardi, who had no points but was very solid and averaged just under 19 minutes per game, third among team defensemen. Much will be said about Jagr and Briere and Lundqvist and Miller before all is said and done, but this series will very much hinge on who’s second line contributes more, who’s fourth and fifth defensemen makes the fewest mistakes, who can get the most energetic shift from their fourth line, etc. Those little things will make a huge difference in this series.

Buffalo Wins If: They can elevate their game. Yes, the Islanders put a bit of a scare into the Sabres, and by all rights they shouldn’t have been able to. The Sabres weren’t able to dominate like many thought they would. This has scared a number of prognosticators into taking the Rangers, but really, no team goes on to win the Stanley Cup without some kind of challenge in the first round, however brief. What’ll be crucial for the Sabres is understanding that they weren’t at their best the whole series against the Isles and figuring out how to be better against the Rangers, because, well, this is the second round, and it’s supposed to be tougher. The Sabres should be able to do this; they went to the third round last year, they have an experienced coach, and are a very good team with a great playoff leader in Drury. But while taking your game to the next level is easy to talk about, it isn’t easy to do. Buffalo has to be mindful of this and realize that the same effort that they put in against the Islanders probably isn’t going to get them past the Rangers.

New York Wins If: They can find a way to control games the way they did against Atlanta. Lets face it, if the Rangers consistently have to come from behind against Buffalo they’re sunk. Against Atlanta, New York was really able to dominate games; it seemed like the Thrashers were chasing them all series long, and that the Rangers were never really in danger of losing control. In part, that came from puck control; the Rangers won some 53% of the faceoffs against Atlanta. In part, that also came from scoring the first goal, which they did in three of the four games. And in part, that came from confidence, which derives from New York’s best players, like Lundqvist, Jagr, and Nylander, playing far better than the stars on the other team, who were playing worse in part because of guys like Avery driving them to distraction. The problem for the Rangers is that the Sabres have many things that Atlanta did not: depth at centre, a playoff-proven goaltender, six good defensemen, a working power play, a good penalty kill, and more than three dangerous wingers. The solution for New York, however, is the same: they need to find a way to control things the same way they did against the Thrashers, even if it’s a monumentally more difficult task against Buffalo, because that’s the only way they’re going to win.

Bottom Line: The Sabres will be too strong for the Rangers. Yes, New York upset Atlanta, but Atlanta had some glaring weaknesses that the Rangers were able to exploit. The weaknesses in Buffalo’s game are much fewer and further between. Lundqvist probably wins them one game, and Jagr wins them another, but after that it’ll be lights out on Broadway. Buffalo in six.