Many say that predicting the NFL season is like trying to win the Idaho lottery: it’s pretty much a crapshoot.   In the past, I’ve experienced that for myself.   And it’s easy to see why: there are only sixteen games in a season, teams can get really hot or really cold really fast, players can go down with season-ending injuries, others come from out of nowhere to make a name for themselves, etc.   You can go on and on with any number of reasons why the NFL is so hard to predict.   But yet, we media members are going to go right ahead and predict it anyway.

So, without further ado, I bring to you my annual NFL prediction columns.   As we head out into the preseason, I will take a look at the NFL, division-by-division.   I’ll give you my thoughts on each team in that division, why I think that team will/won’t be any good this season, and give you an estimated order of finish in that division, one through four.

Today, I would like to start this column series by taking a look at what could be the most interesting division to watch for, aside from the defending NFC Champions.   I am taking a look at the NFC North, home of the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Favres…err, I mean Packers, and Minnesota Vikings.

Chicago Bears

Head Coach : Lovie Smith

Offense : well, I’ll look at this situation with a “glass is half-full” perspective: this is a contract year for starting quarterback Rex Grossman, who has been frowned upon by some for his performance in Super Bowl 41.   Can we say “comparisons to Neil O’Donnell”?   At least now he knows that if he doesn’t get the job done, it’s time for the Bears to go to Brian Griese.   It certainly doesn’t help Grossman that the Bears lost their top running back from last year, Thomas Jones.   Sure, Cedric Benson is a talented running back, and Adrian Peterson may provide 3^rd-Down help, but Thomas Jones was Chicago’s leading rusher last year.   At least the Bears are looking good in other areas.   Grossman’s two favorite targets from last year, Muhsin Muhammed and Desmond Clark, are back, and at least he still has a good offensive line in front of him.   The other receivers also look decent.   Let’s wait and see whether or not this works.

Defense : this is somewhat of a “good news-bad news” deal.   The bad news is Tank Johnson is gone, Lance Briggs is angry, and everybody else back from last year is one year older.   The good news is the Bears did trade for two former defensive greats in Darwin Walker and Adam Archuleta, Brian Urlacher (the defense’s team captain) is back, and, except for the gun-toting ex-Bear, the Bears’ defensive line is back (Adewale Ogunleye, Tommie Harris, & Alex Brown).   Plus, their two top kick returners (Nathan Vasher and Devin Hester) are also back, so the Bears are also still one of the most feared special team units in the NFL.

Overall : it all depends on the offense.   The loss of Thomas Jones will not help, and it may even hurt.   It also doesn’t help that there could very well be a quarterback controversy in Chicago.   The defense will win more games than not, but it alone will not carry the Bears back to the Super Bowl.   But thankfully, in this really bad division, it will be enough to earn the Bears their third-straight division title.

Prediction : NFC North Division Champions

Detroit Lions

Head Coach : Rod Marinelli

Offense : first and foremost, I don’t buy for one minute Jon Kitna’s prediction that the Lions will win 10 games.   I mean, I know he’s excited to have perhaps the most electrifying rookie wide receiver in quite some time in Calvin Johnson, but just because his initials are “C.J.” doesn’t mean his first name is “ Chad”.   Kitna’s a good quarterback, and certainly better than anybody the Vikings will offer this season, but Calvin Johnson alone will not carry Detroit to the division title, especially since they’re in the same division as the Bears, and especially since he still doesn’t have a good offensive line in front of him, making sure he has enough time to find the other C.J.   Kevin Jones should be a little more relaxed, now that the Lions have provided him with help in the form of a decent backup running back in Tatum Bell.   And aside from the other C.J., the Lions’ top receiver from last year, Roy Williams, is back.   They may miss Marcus Pollard more than they think, though.   Detroit does still have one of the most electrifying return men in the division in Eddie Drummond.

Defense : the concept that William Clay Ford and Matt Millen don’t quite seem to grasp is the tired cliché “defense wins championships”.   It may be tired, but it is true.   Detroit won’t win 10 games with a defense whose only recognizable names are Boss Bailey, Shaun Rogers, and Kenoy Kennedy.   That’s not to say somebody won’t make a name for themselves all of a sudden, but I just don’t see it.

Overall : Eddie Drummond can score touchdowns single-handedly, much like Calvin Johnson.   But, to be fair, I just don’t see Detroit winning ten games, especially with that defense.   I don’t even see Detroit placing 2^nd in the division.   However, since I’m being fair here, Detroit is better than Minnesota this year, so at least now Detroit’s no longer in the cellar, so things are looking up.

Prediction : 3^rd in NFC North, won’t make the playoffs

Green Bay Packers

Head Coach : Mike McCarthy

Offense : much like the last two seasons, this season’s underlying theme for the Packers seems to be “will this be Brett Favre’s last season?”   Hey, Packer fans, speaking as a Jazz fan who saw a similar theme for years with Stockton and Malone, I understand whole-heartedly.   Favre still has gas in the tank, he still has something left, and he may ultimately make the playoffs this season.   Donald Driver, Robert Ferguson, Greg Jennings, and Bubba Franks are back, making great targets for Favre.   However, I don’t see a single noticeable name on the offensive line, and Favre may miss Ahman Green more than he may think.   Vernand Morency may be a good running back, and Green may be past his prime, but in order for Favre to not feel like he’s getting killed, he needs a running game to back him up, and I just don’t see one right now.

Defense : well, the bad news is the Packers really didn’t do much to improve defensively, aside from drafting Justin Harrell from Tennessee.   The good news is, at least on paper, it appears the only glaring weakness for their defense is the secondary.   Aaron Kampman should be a better defensive lineman, Ryan Pickett is a decent defensive tackle, Harrell, while young, should be able to help on the defensive line, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila will rebound from his off-year, A.J. Hawk will be improved at the linebacker position, and Al Harris is a good corner.   However, there are no noticeable names at either safety position.   Furthermore, Charles Woodson, while still a decent cornerback, is nowhere near the game-changer he once was.

Overall : part of the reason the NFC North division is weak again is because, even with a sub-par offense and a halfway-decent defense, the Packers could very well finish 2^nd still in the division.   However, I just don’t see the Packers making the playoffs, even with a 2^nd-place finish in the division.

Prediction : 2^nd in NFC North, won’t make the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings

Head Coach : Brad Childress

Offense : while trying to find any positive in the Vikings’ offense, I do see vast improvement in their running game with the addition of rookie Adrian Peterson.   The Vikings have arguably the best offensive line in the division, so that’s something to feel positive about.   However, aside from those two things, the offense is a mess.   Your top quarterback is Tarvaris Jackson, your second-string quarterback is former Jets quarterback Brooks Bollinger, and you have absolutely nobody at either receiver position that has proven to be able to catch the ball.   Good luck with all of that.

Defense : the linebacker unit may not look very impressive this year, but the defensive line is solid enough that it could get the job done, especially in this division.   Also, they made a dramatic two-step improvement in their secondary.   First, they got rid of Fred Smoot.   Second, they added former Colts safety Mike Doss.   Now Doss can show off his Super Bowl ring and then show this defense how to get one of their own.

Overall : the Vikings are just like the Bears; they have a great defense, but a lousy offense.   Actually, it’s even worse than that.   The Vikings have an average defense and a very lousy offense.   I just don’t see Adrian Peterson riding this team all the way out of the cellar this season.

Prediction : 4^th in NFC North, won’t make the playoffs

So, looking at everything overall, here’s how the NFC North shapes up:

1.)      Bears

2.)      Packers

3.)      Lions

4.)      Vikings

RaulCBK@comcast.net

Tomorrow, I will take a look at the NFC West, home to the Seahawks, the much-improved 49ers, the much-improved Cardinals, and the Rams.