They're not
crying poor in Edmonton anymore. Not after the league's new economic system
allowed the Oilers to add some big-ticket items this off-season, and while the
Oilers didn't radically change their team, nor, most likely, their outlook for this season,
they may well be a franchise on the rise.
These previews will now appear five a day (hopefully),
or one division on each of Monday (Central), Tuesday (Northwest), and Wednesday
(Pacific) until the season starts on October 5th. They will be put
on-site by division, roughly in order of predicted finish. Note that the
rookies listed are only those most likely to make the team, not necessarily
ones who have already sewn up a spot, and surprises always occur in training
camp, though with camps out at this point the guesses are more solid than they
were two weeks ago. The In/Out portion represents significant players
added and lost since the end of the 2003-04 season. And now, on with the
show...
In: Chris Pronger, Mike Peca, Todd Harvey
Out: Eric Brewer, Brad Isbister, Mike York, Jason
Chimera, Scott Ferguson
Rookies: Jani Rita, Brad Winchester, Yan
Stastny, Matt Greene
“The New Energy.” That’s the marketing
slogan in Edmonton, where the NHL’s longtime poster child for why a new
economic system was needed added big-ticket players Pronger and Peca once a new
system was in place. A new energy indeed; the Oilers get two of the league’s
best two-way players of the last decade and all it cost them was the inconsistent
Eric Brewer, a decent support scorer in Mike York, and two defense prospects.
Which is not to say the Oilers don’t still have questions surrounding their
lineup, but with Pronger signed to a new five-year deal and some solid young
talent the Oilers could conceivably thrive as much as anyone in the new NHL.
Strengths: 1. In terms of what was on the
Oiler roster, taking Brewer out of the lineup for Pronger is a huge upgrade for
a team that finished 16th in goals allowed last season, which isn’t
all that bad considering how horrible the team’s penalty killing was. Pronger
joins team captain Jason Smith and Steve Staios in giving the Oilers a top
three on defense that are mobile and physically nasty, while Marc-Andre
Bergeron looks like he could be a solid power play quarterback for a long time.
Veterans Igor Ulanov, who was added midway through 2003-04 as a depth defender
and was a huge surprise as he worked his way into the team’s top-four, Cory
Cross, who could easily be too big and slow to thrive under the league’s new
rules, and young Alexei Semenov, also big but not as slow, round out the team’s
top seven. Provided Pronger plays 25-30 minutes a night, which is almost a
given for him, and Smith and Staios provide 21-24 minutes, which they’ve been able
to do in the past, that gives the Oilers the luxury of saving Bergeron mostly
for power play duties and giving the rest of their veterans spot duty.
2. Edmonton’s forward lines are once
again a nice blend of speed, grit and tenacity that have made this team a pain
in the butt to play against for years. Peca should only add to that reputation;
he is a feared open-ice hitter as well as a two-time Selke Trophy winner as the
league’s best defensive forward. Raffi Torres and Ethan Moreau are also hitters
who can chip in offensively, while monolith Georges Laraque may be joined on
the fourth line this season with rookie Brad Winchester, who’s almost equally
large. Those two should be quite effective along the boards and in front of the
net, and Laraque has already taken advantage of the NHL’s new obstruction rules
in the pre-season, drawing a number of penalties simply by taking the puck to
the net and daring someone to take him down. Ryan Smyth is also renowned for
his ability to play the boards and the front of the net, particularly on the
power play. Ales Hemsky, Radek Dvorak and Jani Rita all offer speed and skill
from the wings, while Fernando Pisani, Shawn Horcoff, Jarrett Stoll and Marty
Reasoner all provide solid two-way play. It’s a deep forward corps that head
coach Craig MacTavish likes to roll through in an effort to wear down the
opposition, and on a good night the Oilers use the superior ice in Edmonton to
skate rings around their opponents.
Weaknesses: 1. While the forward corps is
once again deep in terms of NHL-level players, once again there’s also not a
lot of difference in terms of talent or style of play from one line to the
next. When the Oilers acquired Petr Nedved late in the 2003-04 season, he gave
them a different look: a big, purely offensive center playing on a strictly
offensive line. With his loss to free agency, the Oilers are once again lacking
in big, offensively gifted centers and a particularly dangerous scoring line.
While the Oilers needed scoring and size, they instead got Peca, who’s 5’11 on
a good day and has never scored more than 27 goals or 60 points. The team seems
to still be having fantasies about Horcoff turning into an offensive center,
and while he was among the leading scorers in Sweden last season and looked
good at times in a scoring role in 2003-04, he’s never scored more than 40
points in an NHL season, is greatly lacking in consistency, and is already 27.
If he doesn’t turn into an offensive center this season, he never will. And
while Dvorak and Hemsky are very talented wingers, they’re mismatched at times
with the pluggers who are usually playing the left side or center with them who
can’t convert or sometimes even receive their deft passes. The Oilers could
really use that offensive center and a scoring left winger, but with nearly $14
million locked up in Pronger, Peca and Smyth, their cap space is running too
low to add anyone too expensive.
2. If you ask anyone on this squad
they’ll say they have confidence in the team’s goaltending heading into the
season. But while they wouldn’t exactly be lying, you’d have to be blind or in
extreme denial not to see that goal is a real concern for Edmonton right now.
Jussi Markkanen, who returned to the Oilers late in 2003-04 after a stint in
New York, played a career-high 33 games that season and was particularly good
for the Oilers late in the year. But while he continued that success in Russia
during the lockout, where he posted an absolutely ridiculous 1.20 GAA in 54
games for Togliatti, he begins the season on the sidelines with a broken
collarbone. That leaves Ty Conklin, who was handed the team’s starting
goaltender spot in 2003-04 after longtime number one Tommy Salo faltered. And
while Conklin did have a great 2004 World Championship playing for the
Americans, where he led the team to a surprising bronze medal and captured the
tournament’s top goaltender award, he didn’t play much during the lockout and
looked extremely shaky in the pre-season. The Oilers are committed to a
Conklin-Markkanen tandem right now, but whether they can be competitive doing
so is in question.
Don’t be Surprised If: Peca posts some
big offensive numbers. Peca’s always been a two-way talent, but he played
behind Alexei Yashin in New York and in a strict defensive system in Buffalo.
This is the first time he’ll really be a go-to guy on offense, and with more
power play time and less time checking the opposition’s best line, he could
have a career offensive season.
Outlook: New players, same old result. It
really looks like Edmonton’s simply got too many questions to be ranked in the
upper echelon of the Western Conference, and this team will probably have to
once again fight for a playoff spot right up until the very end of the regular
season. If Conklin or Markkanen can break out as a legitimate starter or they
share the goaltending duties effectively it could be a different story, but
even if they do this team’s lack of any real offensive punch at center or on
the left side (aside from Smyth) will hold them back. Then again, if Pronger
and Peca can’t improve the team’s special teams (the Oilers were 29th
on the power play and 27th on the penalty kill in 2003-04), they
won’t even have that playoff spot to compete for, as they’ll quickly fall
behind in the competitive Northwest.
Centres: 1. Mike Peca 2. Shawn Horcoff 3. Jarret
Stoll 4. Marty Reasoner 5. Yan Stastny
Wingers: 1. Ryan Smyth 2. Ales Hemsky 3. Radek
Dvorak 4. Raffi Torres 5. Fernando Pisani 6. Ethan
Moreau 7. Georges Laraque 8. Todd Harvey 9. Jani Rita
10. Brad Winchester
Defensemen: 1. Chris Pronger 2. Jason Smith 3.
Steve Staios 4. Marc-Andre Bergeron 5. Alexei Semenov 6. Igor
Ulanov 7. Cory Cross 8. Dan Smith 9. Matt Greene
Goalies: 1. Ty Conklin 2. Jussi Markkanen
Restricted Free
Agents: none.