Does
Columbus have the horses to make the playoffs? They'd like to think so,
but with some serious questions in some key areas the Blue Jackets may still be
a season or two from seriously competing in the West.
These previews will now appear five a day (hopefully),
or one division on each of Monday (Central), Tuesday (Northwestern), and
Wednesday (Pacific) until the season starts on October 5th. They will be
put on-site by division, roughly in order of predicted finish. Note that
the rookies listed are only those most likely to make the team, not necessarily
ones who have already sewn up a spot, and surprises always occur in training
camp, though with camps out at this point the guesses are more solid than they
were two weeks ago. The In/Out portion represents significant players
added and lost since the end of the 2003-04 season. And now, on with the
show...
In: Adam Foote, Bryan Berard, Martin Prusek, Radoslav
Suchy, Jan Hrdina, Francois Beauchemin
Out: Andrew Cassels, Freddie Brathwaite,
Anders Eriksson, Brian Holzinger, Scott Lachance, Jaroslav Spacek, Derrick
Walser
Rookies: Gilbert Brule, Alexandre Picard,
Jaroslav Balastik, Dan Fritsche, Pascal Leclaire, Steve Goertzen
Columbus made a rather dramatic impact in
the NHL’s new economic system this off-season, signing prized defensemen Foote
and Berard out from the noses of some of the league’s more traditional free
agent players. The Blue Jackets then gave a new five-year deal to budding
superstar forward Rick Nash, giving further notice that this is indeed a team
to watch now and in the future. With a nice collection of young players
and now a group of character veterans led by Foote, Columbus may need just
another piece or two to become a dominant team in the new NHL.
Strengths: 1. Nash remains the
focal point of the offense but unlike 2003-04 he should see some good support
this season. A big reason for that is the fact that fellow young star
Nikolai Zherdev will spend a full season in Columbus. They’ll be aided by
the rather underrated David Vyborny, who had 53 points in 2003-04 and was among
the Czech league’s leading scorers last season with 46 points. After
that, the picture gets a little fuzzy, but surely at least one or two of
veterans Todd Marchant, Geoff Sanderson and free agent signing Jan Hrdina will
be able to return to form a little and provide 40-50 points. Of slightly
more interest will be the possible cast of rookies the team may use this
season; Picard and Brule are only 19 and 18, respectively, but one or both may
be ready for the NHL. Balastik, who tied Vyborny in points in the Czech
league last season but had 30 goals among his 46 points, was making a strong
case to make the team in training camp as well, and could provide some
excellent offensive support. The key is still Nash, of course, who tied
for the league lead in goals in 2003-04 at the tender age of 20; those who saw
Nash play in 2004-05 for Davos in Switzerland or for Canada in a number of international
competitions say he may well be coming back to Columbus as an even better
player than when he left. As a group, they’re quick, they can score, and
they’re only going to get better.
2. His numbers haven’t always reflected
it, particularly in the wins column, but since taking over as the team’s number
one goaltender in 2002-03, the Blue Jackets' lack of success has been despite
Marc Denis’ best efforts, not because of them. Denis followed up his
77-game 2002-03 season with one of fewer games but better numbers in 2003-04,
and despite the fact that he didn’t play professionally anywhere last season
Columbus will be expecting him to shoulder the load again this season and to
excel. Denis’ .918 save percentage in 2003-04 was phenomenal on a team that
didn’t get even a sniff of the playoffs, and was eighth among number one
goaltenders across the league, better even than Vezina Trophy winner Martin
Brodeur’s. The Blue Jackets may still be looking for players to emerge at
some key positions, but the starter’s role seems set, with former Sens backup
Martin Prusek and prospect Pascal Leclaire waiting in the wings.
Weaknesses: 1. What this team really
lacks is a true top-line scoring center. Eventually that role will
probably fall to Brule, but at 18 it’s far too much to expect him to step into
it now. However, the other candidates for the position really don’t seem
up to the job; Hrdina did score 57 points in a season once but seems lost after
leaving Pittsburgh, Marchant once scored 60 but his career best before that was
only 40 and he doesn’t have the skills to center a top line, Malhotra has never
been able to consistently play to his abilities, and Fritsche, like Brule, is
too young, and is more of a gritty two-way type anyway. That leaves
Alexander Svitov, who not only has been thus far unable to parlay his great
talent into a full-time NHL job due to inconsistency, but he wasn’t even in camp
and may spend the entire season in Russia. That leaves no suitable
candidate for the Jackets’ top line center spot, and maybe not even one that
really fits well as a second-line center either.
2. Behind Foote and Berard, the Columbus
defense is really just a big question mark. The team badly needs a
breakout season from young Rostislav Klesla, who is only 23 but is already
entering his fourth full NHL season. He may have been rushed into the
pros too soon; the team desperately hopes that he regained some confidence
playing in Europe last season. Captain Luke Richardson returns for his
third season in Columbus, but at 36 and never being the fleetest of foot to
begin with, whether Richardson can compete as the league attempts to move
towards speed and offense is unknown. Outside of that, the defense is
composed of castoffs and largely unproven defenders; the last spots will likely
be nailed down by three of Radoslav Suchy, a former Coyote who really isn’t
consistent or physical enough to be a top NHL defenseman, Duvie Westcott, who’s
small and gets hurt a lot, Francois Beauchemin, who’s played all of one NHL
game, and Aaron Johnson, who played well for Columbus in 2003-04 but took a
step back in his development in the minors last season. Foote and
Berard will have to log big minutes and Klesla will have to find his game for
this defense to be effective.
Don’t be Surprised If: Columbus becomes a
serious player in the trade market late in the season if they’re still in a
playoff race. The Blue Jackets could easily find themselves in eighth,
ninth or tenth place when the NHL’s trade deadline rolls around, and GM Doug
MacLean may well decide that he’s just one major piece, probably a center or
defenseman, away from a playoff spot. The Blue Jackets payroll sits at
less than $30 million to start the season, well under the league’s new salary
cap, and if there are veterans to be had for cheap late in the season Columbus
will probably be listening.
Outlook: Columbus has got a shot at the playoffs in just
their fifth season of existence and will probably be in the race until the end,
but at this point it’s tough to say whether they’ll make it or not. It
could easily depend on what moves MacLean can swing late in the season; his
team’s needs are clear, and a good offensive center or top four defenseman may
well become available from a team that’s out of the race or having cap problems.
Either way, Columbus should be an entertaining team to watch this season, and
probably for years to come as well.
Centres:
1. Todd Marchant 2. Jan Hrdina 3. Manny Malhotra 4. Gilbert
Brule 5. Mark Hartigan 6. Ben Simon
Wingers:
1. Rick Nash 2. Nikolai Zherdev 3. David Vyborny 4. Geoff
Sanderson 5. Trevor Letowski 6. Tyler Wright 7. Jaroslav
Balastik 8. Dan Fritsche 9. Jody Shelley 10. Steve Goertzen 11. Alex Picard
Defensemen:
1. Adam Foote 2. Bryan Berard 3. Luke Richardson 4. Rostislav
Klesla 5. Radoslav Suchy 6. Francois Beauchemin 7. Duvie
Westcott 8. Aaron Johnson
Goalies:
1. Marc Denis 2. Martin Prusek 3. Pascal Leclaire
Restricted Free Agents: Alexander Svitov (C)