The Goods: Atlanta went 43-28-11 this season for 97 points, a total which would actually rank them just above the Rangers 94 points (42-30-10) but the Thrashers get the third seed by virtue of winning the Southeast Division. It may be worth noting that the team who has won the Southeast has won the last two Stanley Cups (Carolina in 2006, Tampa Bay in 2004). If the Thrashers are going to go that far, they’ll rely heavily on 23-year-old goalie Kari Lehtonen, who was impressive, if a bit inconsistent, after playing 68 games in his sophomore season. They’ll also be looking for big playoffs from key performers Marian Hossa, Slava Kozlov, Ilya Kovalchuk, Keith Tkachuk, and defensemen Niclas Havelid and Alexei Zhitnik. The Rangers, meanwhile, will also be looking for a big playoffs from their second-year goalie, Henrik Lundqvist. With a defense comprised of foot soldiers lacking in big names, the Rangers big names up front, Michael Nylander, Martin Straka, Brendan Shanahan and especially Jaromir Jagr, will have to help Lundqvist carry the team. In the playoffs for the first time in eight years last season, the Rangers went down in four straight to the Devils, unable to recover from a Jagr shoulder injury. This is the first season the Thrashers franchise, which has been in the league since the 1999-2000 season, has appeared in the playoffs. Atlanta had a woeful 79.8% penalty killing rate, good for 26^th in the league, while their power play was only 23^rd. The Rangers were 12^th in PK at 83.8%, while their PP was an impressive 8^th.

The Key: Kovalchuk vs. Shanahan. Each team goes into this series with one nigh-overwhelming talented offensive line, the Thrashers with the Hossa-Kozlov combo that’s been so good this season, the Rangers with Nylander between Straka and Jagr. Don’t be too surprised if those lines play head-to-head a lot, as neither team has a great shutdown line to match up against the other team’s best. But the most important matchup will be between second line wingers Kovalchuk and Shanahan. Kovy is one of the most dynamic goal-scorers in the game, and while his numbers are down a bit this season, his defensive game has reportedly improved. Shanahan, meanwhile, is a grizzled vet the Rangers added for some playoff experience. At 38 years of age he had a blazing start, cooled off significantly, missed 15 games with a concussion, then returned to help the team lock up a playoff spot. Shanahan’s playoff history in Detroit, where he won three Stanley Cups, is well documented. He and Kovalchuk are the trigger-men on their team’s respective power plays, have found chemistry with centres who were late-season acquisitions, Kovalchuk with Tkachuk and Shanahan with Sean Avery, and are at far different stage of their careers. Kovalchuk has a lot to prove in his first playoffs, but it could be argued that Shanahan has just as much to prove, as this is his first playoffs in recent memory not on a talented Red Wings team that had a lot of playoff experience and leadership to rely on besides him. The top lines on each team will get their points, but the contributions from these two second line wingers will be crucial to the series both on and off the ice.

Atlanta Wins If: Their power play can get on track (and it has been better since the deadline day addition of Zhitnik) and playoff rookies like Kovalchuk and Lehtonen and past playoff disappointments like Tkachuk and Hossa can find their feet quickly. The worst thing that could happen to the Thrashers is to get down early; if they do, this series could be over fast. The Stanley Cup experience of head coach Bob Hartley will help, but this franchise has never been in the playoffs, doesn’t have a lot of depth beyond their top two lines and top four defensemen, and has a goalie in his first full season as a starter in net. Good on the Thrashers for making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history; now the team needs to figure out this playoff thing in a hurry or it could be over before they know it.

New York Wins If: They can get the same kind of performance out of a defense that’s about as nondescript as they come that Carolina did out of a similar group last season. The Hurricanes Cup-winning D was a collection of veterans and no-names that as a unit was far greater than the sum of its parts. On paper the similarities to the Ranger defense are striking. Only one defenseman with 40 or more points (Frank Kaberle on Carolina, Michal Roszival on New York) during the season, with three more in the 20-point range. A big, underrated guy who can dominate in his own zone (Aaron Ward of Carolina, Marek Malik of New York). Several guys who don’t have great offensive skills, but can move the puck up-ice quickly and effectively. As a group the Rangers D is younger, which could be either better for them or worse; they’re not as experienced as Carolina’s defense was last year, but they should be quicker. The focus will be on the stars up front in this series, but the Rangers will need their defense to shine if they’re to win.

Bottom Line: Go with the Rangers in six. Atlanta has the advantage of home ice, but was brutal on special teams most of the regular season and aren’t as playoff tested as the Rangers. If Jagr goes down again it could certainly de-rail the Rangers, but then, the same could be said of the Thrashers if Hossa gets hurt. Last season’s playoff meltdown should only help Lundqvist focus this season, while Lehtonen has no such experience to draw on.